The official press release is here… but you want find what you’re looking for if you read it. I couldn’t get a sense of what her goals may be from her hastily arranged press conference either. She wandered out into her backyard and delivered a short statement, taking no questions afterward, in the media blackhole that is the 4th of July weekend. Also, she leaked some information earlier in the day that suggested she wouldn’t run for reelection but not mentioning she would be stepping down in a few weeks. It’s all a bit confusing.

Several talking points are already taking hold including one that suggests Sarah Palin couldn’t possibly run for a higher office than Governor when she couldn’t even complete a single term. Then again, President Obama was barely into his first term as a Senator when he decided to run for the nation’s top office. Experience questions aside, Palin’s decision to step down is probably about one of three things.

1. Presidential Aspirations

It could be plausible that Sarah Palin wants to break free from the bounds of the Governorship and any ethics issues she faces while positioning herself for a Presidential run in 2012. If this is the case, why run with the presser at such an awkward time in the news cycle? Well, Palin’s approval rating has slumped a bit since November (though it’s still among the highest for a sitting Governor) so it makes sense that she might want to get out while the gettin’s good. Palin may also feel that as a Governor she can’t criticize the President as she would like to. She could be tired of playing by a set of rules that are holding her back and maybe Sarah thinks it’s time for a media campaign to battle the myths and outright lies about her that swirl around the media landscape.

2. Money and Power

I remembered watching a close-to-tears Palin alongside Senator McCain on election night and wondering what she would do next. Palin was thrust into the spotlight in a major way and she went from obscurity to fame in record time. But when the results came in on November 4, it all came crashing down. Palin must have felt odd about the prospects of returning to small-town Alaska and resuming business as usual. It probably seemed boring to her. She now had offers coming from every direction and ambitions far beyond the Governorship. With book deals and dollar signs in her eyes it would seem a good idea to strike while the iron is still hot. She could make enough money in the next few years to cover her family comfortably for a long time. And, with a clean slate, she could focus more on her special needs child, Trig.

3. A Brewing Scandal

This is by far the sexiest possibility of the three. Rumors are swirling of impending IRS suits and ethics cases galore. Those rumors may have no basis in fact but it’s worth looking at. Could there be a shoe dropping sometime soon that would have ended Sarah Palin’s political career anyhow? I’m skeptical of this for several reasons but the most obvious of the bunch — why would she wait several weeks to resign? — seems to hold water. Palin has been dogged by ethics complaints since day one (most of them partisan in nature), why would she duck out here?

I think the real answer is somewhere between 1 and 2. Let’s call it 1.5. I’m guessing Alaska is holding Sarah Palin back politically. She wants to engage in the debate vociferously at a national level — something that would be unbecoming for someone in her current position. She’s also well aware that to have any chance in 2012 she’s got a lot to ground to make up. Palin has to rebrand herself as a competent manager intelligent enough to take on any issue head-on. She can’t do these things or raise the money needed to launch a large-scale campaign while she’s running Alaska, so she’s out.

If this is the case, I expect to see Palin hit the media circuit shortly after she officially resigns. She’ll position herself alongside popular political figures and combat the Obama administration at every angle. I don’t think (as some others are suggesting) that it’s over for Sarah Palin at this point. I do think that, if she wants to pull off the task outlined above, she has a whole lot of work to do.

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