Most mainstream media outlets seem to be keeping their distance from this explosive ‘coup’ story in Honduras. Odds are this is less because they’re trying to defend the President’s inconsistencies with ‘meddling’ in international affairs and more because they don’t truly understand the story. So, let me take a minute (or a few paragraphs) and dive into the various reports that best describe the current situation in Honduras. Let’s start with the major players and move on to the brass tax.

Major Players:

Manuela Zelaya: This is the man at the heart of the issue. The (now possibly former?) President of Honduras has been super chummy with Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez — so much so that many Hondurans now see Zelaya as a stooge of Chavez. In fact, when the Honduran Congress (including members of his own party), the Supreme Court in Honduras and anyone else who can read the Honduran constitution, told Zelaya that his referendum was illegal, it was Venezuela who sent in the ballots and ‘advisers’ no one else would pony up. Zelaya was yanked out of power in the dead of night and tossed on a plane to Costa Rica. He would have been toast politically but world leaders have come to the defense of Zelaya and he just delivered a major speech at the U.N. to rousing applause. All this for a guy hell-bent on having his way, constitution be damned.

The Congress: The Honduran Congress used to side with Zelaya. That is, until he went all crazy and decided he’d like to run for another term — something illegal under the current constitution. Even members of Zelaya’s party have turned against him. Though the removal of the President was clearly a coup, it was a bipartisan coup. A coup supported not only by the Congress (they gave the order to oust him) but also by the Supreme Court who feared the direction of the country under a man who refused to follow rules and laws. Though most outsiders are siding with Zelaya, the Honduran people and their elected leaders are not. It was this same Congress who appointed the new President of Honduras on Sunday despite the opinions of foreigners. After the new President was sworn in, the Honduran Congress erupted in applause, celebrating what they deemed the end of a insufferable relationship with the former head of state.

The Supreme Court:The court has sided with the Congress on this issue and appears to be in support of the coup as well. But while Congress has been quite vocal in the aftermath of last week’s actions, the Court has been quiet. They seem intent on appearing ‘above’ the debate. I guess you could say it was their job to monitor the rule of law and uphold the constitution and that goal may have been met in their eyes. But if the Supreme Court thought this was going to go away quietly they underestimated President Obama’s willingness to go back on his ‘meddling’ comments once the debate left Iran and landed in Central America.

The Military: The military is the interesting element in this story. It’s the military presence that makes this officially a coup but the military had no interest in remaining in charge. The next head of state was a congressman, not a military man. Also, it should be noted (despite the nonsense that Zelaya spewed at the U.N.) that the Honduran military seemed to handle the President with kid gloves. They probably went too far in pushing him out to Costa Rica and putting themselves in the unfortunate situation of having to let him back in, but he was not injured, not a scratch on his face or bruise on his body. The military has refused to engage with pro-Zelaya protesters and, outside of a tear gas incident, there haven’t been any ‘bloody revolution’ moments for the media to take hold of.

Roberto Micheletti: He’s the new guy. Micheletti is of the same party as Zelaya, though the two are far from friends. Putting him in charge may have been a stroke of genius — or a shield from partisan criticism — and he’s taking a hard line on the return of Manuela Zelaya. He’s made it clear that he envisions rounding up and arresting Zelaya if he tries to reenter the country in the coming days. Micheletti, like both the congress and the court, has refused to engage with foreign critics like Barack Obama who have yet to recognize him as the official leader of Honduras. He’s dedicated to treading lightly at this point and trying to keep things calm until the country can conduct free and fair elections to properly replace Zelaya.

Those are the main players. Though, I could probably toss Hugo Chavez, Evo Morales, Daniel Ortega and President Obama on that list as they’ve been the loudest outsiders to comment so far. Chavez has gone as far as threatening military incursion into Honduras if Manuela Zelaya isn’t returned to power. Morales blames the CIA and Western forces for the coup and Daniel Ortega has threatened to sever Nicaragua’s trade deals with Honduras. President Obama, for his part, has loudly voiced opposition to the coup from the get-go and reportedly tried to stop it from happening. Obama says Zelaya is the true leader of Honduras and he seems to want everything to quiet down and go back to normal at a speedy pace.

The bottom line: Something had to be done. Zelaya wouldn’t listen to the Honduran Congress when they told him his referendum, designed to set up a chance for indefinite rule, was unconstitutional. Both parties agreed something had to be done. So the Congress sent the matter to the nation’s most powerful court, the Supreme Court of Honduras, for a final judgment. The Court sided with the Congress and ordered a halt to the planned, unconstitutional referendum because something had to be done. Angered that the military leadership would not provide the necessary security for his vote (now deemed an illegal vote) Zelaya fired military chief Gen. Romeo Vasquez. The General’s staff resigned in protest because something had to be done. Zelaya, unfazed by any of this, pushed forward. He reached out to his good friend and puppet master Hugo Chavez for help. Chavez offered to send ‘advisers’ and ballots to conduct the poll, interfering in Honduras’ affair. So the military, the Congress and the Honduran Supreme Court made a final decision to oust the President because something had to be done lest they all become citizens of a broader Venezuela.

They should have refrained from expelling Zelaya from the country but they did not. Fearing a rash of protests and an uprising led internally by the ousted President, they made the move to send Manuela Zelaya to Costa Rica and the rest is recent history. It’s amazing what can happen in just a few days of fast-paced Central American politics. Now on to the final question.

What happens from here? Much to the chagrin of the shiny, new Honduran leader, the international community seems to side with his opponent. Though I’m not sure they wouldn’t support something similar were they among those Hondurans opposing Zelaya’s actions. President Obama’s opinion is key on this matter and he’s made his intentions clear. Obama wants Zelaya reinstated. But that would put a man with no care for the country’s constitution back in power… this time with the backing of the most powerful politicians in the world. That may be the opportunity the ousted President is looking for. If Zelaya rides this wave correctly, he can not only win back power in Honduras for the remainder of his term, he may be able to force the unconstitutional referendum through and retain power for the foreseeable future.

Update: I neglected to mention that the Honduras Congress’ rebuff of Zelaya was unanimous.

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